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Robots Will Soon Take Your Job, Warns Oxford Study
Among the findings: Machines will be superior to humans in writing best-selling books and performing surgery by 2053
Advancements in Artificial Intelligence — the capability of machines to make informed decisions and perform tasks usually reserved for humans — are moving at a rapid rate, and it’s threatening workers from truck drivers to surgeons, according to a new study from the University of Oxford.
Spearheaded by Katja Grace of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford, the report surveyed more than 350 AI experts on how long it’ll take machines to master certain jobs, from remedial to advanced. The results are jarring.
Within the next decade, experts predict machines will outperform humans when it comes to translating languages, writing a quality high school essay, and driving trucks. AI proficiency in sales and retail is expected by the early 2030s.
The essay data is especially intriguing. It indicates AI is on the cusp of routinely passing the Turing Test — a baseline trial where humans are unable to distinguish between interacting with machines and another person.
High-level jobs are not far behind, either The study anticipates machines will be superior to humans in writing best-selling books and performing surgery by 2053.
Altogether, 50 percent of the researchers surveyed believe we’ll achieve “High-level machine intelligence,” or HLMI — where unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers — within the next 45 years. Of course, experts can often be wrong, but even the high-end of these predictions anticipates automation of all jobs within the next 120 years.